An internal poll commissioned by Congressman David Young’s campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee shows the incumbent Congressman leads his Democratic challenger, Jim Mower, by 15 points.
The Tarrance Group conducted the poll of 400 likely voters in the district on September 20-22, 2016. Young had 52% of the vote with Mowrer trailing at 37%. Only 11% were undecided. The margin of error is +/-4.9%.
This coincides with a Simpson College/RABA research poll conducted earlier this month that also showed Young with a 15 point lead over Mowrer – 50% to 35%. Both polls this month indicate voters are starting to gradually break toward Young he only led by 12 points in a WPA Research poll conducted in August.
The Tarrance Group’s polling memo concluded that “with fewer than 50 days to go in the election, Young appears likely to be re-elected.”
Young also leads in fundraising as well. Young raised $328,324.77 last quarter bringing his total amount this election cycle to $1,623,533.66. Mowrer raised $205,948.33 last quarter and raised a total of $952,186.41. Young leads Mowrer going into the final stretch with cash on hand with $1,247,694.56 compared to Mowrer having just $161,507.08 an almost 8 to 1 advantage. According to Open Secrets the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is the only outside group that is significantly spending any money for Mowrer in the district, and they’ve only invested $34,000 more than the National Republican Congressional Committee has for Young. The American Wind Action 527 has also spent $190,000 in the district on behalf of Young.
If Mowrer was going to be able to pull off upsetting an incumbent he would need significantly more resources than what has been brought to bear on his behalf in the district. He won’t be able to purchase enough advertising to overcome name ID issues, let alone, prevail with a message that can overcome the amount of advertising Young can do and has done already.