I was asked to make an Election Day prediction today for The Pulse 2016 so I thought I would share it here. First off, let me say I am not a fan making predictions, especially not this cycle. This election cycle has been wildly unpredictable so I won’t be surprised if my map is totally off.
I’ve never claimed to be a prophet so don’t stone me if I’m wrong.
Second, this map is not reflective of how I want things to go. This is my gut feeling based on what I’ve read and what I’ve seen with the polls. As everyone should know by now I support neither major party candidate for president so I’m looking at this as a dispassionate observer. I won’t be happy that I’m right (ok, there may be a sigh of relief since I don’t like making predictions). I won’t be unhappy if I’m wrong.
I believe that Hillary Clinton will win the Electoral College 307 to Donald Trump’s 231. Here’s the map.
Let me point out that Nevada, Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire are up for grabs so they could go either way. If I’m wrong it will likely be with these states.
New Hampshire polls show a trend toward Clinton, and based on previous elections I don’t see the state turning red.
North Carolina has been a huge battle ground over HB2 and I predict Trump will carry the state based on social conservative efforts in the states and the military vote.
In Florida, Trump will lead in the northern part of the state. Hispanics appear on the verge of out performing previous turnout models. This does not bode well for Trump. Trump I suspect will lose it in South Florida, and in Central Florida along the I-4 corridor that has a large Puerto Rican population.
Nevada has a large Hispanic population as well so while it will be close and the polls indicate he is ahead I think Clinton will prevail due to the Hispanic vote and with early voting.
Early voting in some states will mitigate the effect of the 11th hour FBI announcement. New Mexico while it is a toss-up, also has a large Hispanic population so I don’t see him pulling off winning that state.
Michigan and Pennsylvania will likely go to Clinton even though the race will be much closer that she would like. If Clinton has a strong performance among African Americans, and they turn-out like they did in 2008 and 2012 it will be extremely difficult for Trump to win in Michigan. Of the two states if Trump is going to flip one of them I think Pennsylvania is more likely.
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