Donald Trump’s electoral chances have improved with just four full days to go before Election Day on Tuesday. Just last week the map showed Hillary Clinton with 263 electoral votes and Trump with 164. Today with swing states that margin has shrunk to Clinton with 226 and Trump with 180 so the margin has shrunk. So we have this.
The map is catching up to the trend we have seen with national polling. Clinton currently has a 2 percent average lead in the polls that have tightened over the weekend. There has been movement in state polls. Currently Trump and Clinton are tied in North Carolina. Trump however has lead in 2 of the last three polls in that state. Trump now leads in Nevada by an RCP average of two points. Trump and Clinton are now tied in Florida. Trump has expanded his lead in Ohio and now has an average lead of 3.3 percent. Trump still has a small lead in Iowa. Trump leads in Arizona. In New Hampshire Clinton now has a slim average lead of just .08 percent, but in the last three polls Trump leads two of them and tied in one so he definitely has momentum.
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District is still pretty close. Clinton leads in two of the last three polls so for now we’ll give that to her. Here is what we have if Trump wins the swing states mentioned above, but loses Maine 2nd CD.
This my friend represents a 269 to 269 electoral tie. Now if Trump wins Maine’s 2nd Congressional District he would win 270 to 268.
A close election is what is needed for any 3rd party candidate to block either candidate from winning and still have a chance to win themselves when the House of Representatives would then decide. If it is just between Clinton and Trump I think the advantage is probably Trump’s. If a 3rd party candidate picks off a state then that could further upset the apple cart.
Evan McMullin in Utah has probably the best chance of joining this scrum if no one hits 27o, but Trump has improved in the latest Utah polls. I still think Utah is a wild card state with the Mormon population who are Trump adverse. I had thought Idaho could possibly be another state, but Trump has a strong lead in the last two polls that included McMullin so it will probably be Utah or bust. I also wonder about Wyoming, but there hasn’t been any polling so who knows.
Another state that could be a wildcard would be New Mexico. There hasn’t been any polling since September, but you can’t count Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson out since he was a two-term Governor there. It’s his strongest state in terms of polling. Should Evan McMullin win Utah and Gary Johnson pull an upset in New Mexico the map could look like this.
Clinton would lead with 264 electoral votes to Trump’s 263. McMullin would have six electoral votes and Johnson would have five. I have no idea what the House of Representatives would do in this instance. If House Republicans stick with party then they would still go with Trump. However McMullin is a known to Republicans since he was the House Republican Caucus’ policy director. It is within the realm of possibility that Republican members who don’t like Trump would back McMullin. If they are joined by Democrats who see a Clinton loss as inevitable, but back McMullin to block Trump then he could prevail. I don’t see any scenario where Clinton wins if it goes to the House.
This of course is all dependent on polling trends continuing the way they are. Then, of course, there is the question of much early voting will impact the outcome as well since those votes are locked in.