It’s A Three-Way Race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination

Democrats currently have 24 candidates running for president, but this race is, in reality, a three-way race.

Former Vice President Joe Biden is in the driver’s seat with U.S. Senators Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., trailing behind.

Currently, according to Real Clear Politics, Biden holds a 15.7 point average lead with recent national polls:

1. Joe Biden – 32.2 percent
2. Bernie Sanders – 16.5 percent
3. Elizabeth Warren – 14.0 percent
4. Kamala Harris – 10.3 percent
5. Pete Buttigieg – 5.5 percent
6. Beto O’Rourke – 3.0 percent
7. Cory Booker – 1.7 percent
8. Andrew Yang – 1.5 percent
9. Julian Castro – 1.0 percent
10. Tulsi Gabbard – 0.8 percent
11. Denny Steyer – 0.8 percent
12. Amy Klobuchar – 0.7 percent
13. John Delaney – 0.7 percent

Iowa Caucuses – 2/3/20 (41 delegates)

At the state level, things look a little different. In Iowa, that saw its last poll in mid-July and the one after that was in late June, U.S. Senator Kamala Harris, D-Calif., is in 2nd place.

Here’s the RCP average of the two last polls in Iowa that show Biden with a solid lead.

1. Joe Biden – 24.0 percent
2. Kamala Harris – 16.0 percent
3. Elizabeth Warren – 15.0 percent
4. Bernie Sanders – 14.0 percent
5. Pete Buttigieg – 6.5 percent
6. Amy Klobuchar – 3.0 percent
7. Cory Booker – 2.5 percent
8. Julian Castro – 1.5 percent
9. Beto O’Rourke – 1.0 percent
10. John Delaney – 1.0 percent
11. Kristin Gillibrand – 0.5 percent
12. John Hickenlooper – 0.5 percent

New Hampshire Primary – 2/11/20 (24 delegates)

Biden leads in New Hampshire where again we see Biden, Warren, and Sanders in the top three in the RCP average of polls.

1. Joe Biden – 24.0 percent
2. Elizabeth Warren – 18.0 percent
3. Bernie Sanders – 16.3 percent
4. Kamala Harris – 13.0 percent
5. Pete Buttigieg – 9.7 percent
6. Andrew Yang – 2.3 percent
7. Beto O’Rourke – 1.3 percent
8. Tulsi Gabbard – 1.3 percent
9. Cory Booker – 1.3 percent
10. Amy Klobuchar – 1.3 percent
11. Kristin Gillibrand – 1.0 percent
12. John Delany – 1.0 percent
13. Marianne Williamson – 1.0 percent

Nevada Democratic Caucuses – 2/22/20 (36 delegates)

Biden has a commanding lead in Nevada, but there have only been two recent polls conducted – one in June and one in July. Here is the RCP average of polls in that state.

1. Joe Biden – 32.5 percent
2. Bernie Sanders – 18.0 percent
3. Elizabeth Warren – 15.5 percent
4. Kamala Harris – 8.5 percent
5. Pete Buttigieg – 6.5 percent
6. Beto O’Rourke – 2.5 percent
7. Andrew Yang – 2.5 percent
8. Cory Booker – 2.5 percent
9. Julian Castro – 1.5 percent
10. Amy Klobuchar – 1.0 percent

South Carolina Democratic Primary – 2/29/20 (54 delegates)

Biden currently also has a commanding lead in South Carolina with Sanders in second place, and Harris trailing him. All of the polling took place before the last debate.

Here is the RCP average of recent South Carolina polls:

1. Joe Biden – 37.5 percent
2. Bernie Sanders – 12.5 percent
3. Kamala Harris – 11.3 percent
4. Elizabeth Warren – 10.8 percent
5. Pete Buttigieg – 5.8 percent
6. Cory Booker – 3.3 percent
7. Beto O’Rourke – 1.8 percent
8. Denny Steyer – 1.5 percent
9. Andrew Yang – 1.3 percent
10. Amy Klobuchar – 0.8 percent
11. Marianne Williamson – 0.8 percent
12. John Delaney – 0.5 percent
13. Michael Bennet – 0.3 percent

Conclusion

Biden is sucking the air out of the “can beat Trump and is more electable” lane of voters. Sanders and Warren are competing for the far left within the party. I believe if Biden does not botch his campaign, it’s his to lose. If Warren and Sanders both stay in the race, it will go to Biden.

I think whatever bump Harris saw after the first debate is gone after the second. She had a horrible night and was clubbed by Biden on health care which will hurt among more moderate voters. The Gabbard clobbered her on criminal justice reform. She was not sharp. I suspect that she’ll hang on until the California primary which is on Super Tuesday on March 3, 2020.

California is the key primary on that day with 416 delegates up for grabs where she currently trails Biden in a tighter 4-way primary, and it is proportional, not winner-take-all. Harris has to dominate in California and, from what I can see, she won’t. I doubt she’ll do well in the southern states including Texas which has the second-largest delegate haul that day.

South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg had his five seconds of fame; he’s not a thing. Democrats are not going to nominate a mayor of a small city who is barely old enough to run for President. Beyond Texas, no one is interested in former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-Texas. I don’t know why U.S. Senator Kristin Gillibrand, D-N.Y., and U.S. Senator Cory Booker, D-N.J., are running. This field should narrow significantly before the Iowa Caucuses, and it’s Biden’s race to lose.