The latest Public Policy Polling Iowa Caucus poll is out. it shows a three-way statistical tie. This confirms what The Des Moines Register found in their latest poll in the last two days of their polling a definite Santorum surge. Now we have a statistical dead heat in Iowa with Ron Paul at 20%, Mitt Romney at 19%, and Rick Santorum at 18%. Newt Gingrich is 4th at 14%, Rick Perry is 5th at 10%, Michele Bachmann is 6th at 8%, Jon Huntsman is in 7th at 4%, and Buddy Roemer (yes some people still include him in the polls) has 2%.
The PPP poll was last taken on 12/26-27, since that time Paul has dropped 4%, Romney has dropped 1%, Santorum has gone up 8%, Gingrich has increased a point, Bachmann has dropped 3 points, Perry has stayed the same as have Huntsman and Roemer.
As Pollster J. Ann Seltzer said in her analysis of the Iowa Poll, “Momentum’s name is Santorum.” He is only one of two candidates who have seen a jump, and the only one who has gained more than a point. PPP also points out that he has the highest favorability rating at 60%. He leads with both Tea Partiers and Evangelicals.
This is an interesting poll as it includes independents and Democrats who plan to register to vote in the Republican caucus (they estimate 24% of the electorate). They said that Paul polls 3rd among actual Republicans tied with Gingrich at 17%. His ability to win the Iowa Caucus will be based on whether the youth vote and non-Republicans actually come out and caucus for him.
The bottom has fallen out for Michele Bachmann, as she has seen a steady decline and last week has probably had the worst week any candidate could have. She should say adieu after Tuesday.
This will go down to the wire, and as I said before I doubt the winner will break 25%.
