Donald Trump appears to be gets his post-convention bump It’s probably too early to tell what kind of an impact that the DNC Wikileaks story will have on the polls, but it certainly won’t help Hillary Clinton.
I mentioned last week that the electoral map didn’t look so good for Donald Trump.
FiveThirtyEight points out that if the election were held today Donald Trump would win and as of right now has a 57.5% chance to win. Their polls plus forecast still gives Hillary Clinton a 58.2% advantage.
Nationally the Real Clear Politics two-way polling average now gives Donald Trump a 0.2% lead over Hillary Clinton 44.1% to 43.9%. Trump leads in three national polls released today. He leads Clinton in a Los Angeles Times/USC poll 45% to 41%. He leads Clinton 48% to 45% in the CNN/ORC poll. He also leads Clinton by 1 points – 44% to 43% in the latest CBS poll.
There hasn’t been much of a change with state polling since last week as of yet.
According to Real Clear Politics Clinton still holds a slight lead in their 4-way polling average between herself, Trump, Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Trump, however, in the latest CNN/ORC poll, sees his polling drop by four points in their 4-way poll, but Hillary Clinton’s drops by six points to give him a five point lead. The latest CBS poll still gives Trump a one-point lead when Johnson is included in their polling as both Trump and Clinton lose four points.
CBS notes that part of Trump’s bump is due to the seeing the base shore up some, but not to the extent seen with Mitt Romney after the 2012 Republican National Convention:
After his party’s convention, Trump is getting the support of 81 percent of Republicans – a slight uptick from before the convention, but short of the 90 percent Romney was getting after the conventions four years ago. His support among conservatives has grown; Trump gets the backing of 72 percent of conservatives now, up from 66 percent.
The CNN/ORC poll sees an increase among independents supporting Trump.
Trump’s new edge rests largely on increased support among independents, 43% of whom said that Trump’s convention in Cleveland left them more likely to back him, while 41% were dissuaded. Pre-convention, independents split 34% Clinton to 31% Trump, with sizable numbers behind Johnson (22%) and Stein (10%). Now, 46% say they back Trump, 28% Clinton, 15% Johnson and 4% Stein.
We’ll have to wait and see what kind, if any, bounce Hillary Clinton will get from the Democratic National Convention meeting in Philadelphia this week. Based on the way it has started I would be surprised to see much of one and Clinton is at risk of seeing Sanders voters leave en masse.